Some Liberals say the recent and highly-publicized chatter about a possible merger with the NDP has "reunited" the Grit caucus behind Leader Michael Ignatieff, while others say the source of solidarity is an acceptance the party is likely to lose the next election and must avoid talking about mergers or coalitions until then.

Former prime minister Jean Chrétien said recently the left might do well to unite in order to defeat Prime Minister Stephen Harper's (Calgary Southwest, Alta.) Conservatives, and former Ignatieff operative Warren Kinsella has been aggressively pushing the idea from the sidelines. Both the Liberal leader and NDP Leader Jack Layton (Toronto-Danforth, Ont.) have come out against it, however, saying they will run independent campaigns in the next federal election.

Liberal sources told The Hill Times last week that Mr. Chrétien floated the merger idea as a trial balloon, but it's unlikely he will speak about it again so as not to be seen as undermining Mr. Ignatieff's leadership. One Liberal insider said that Mr. Chrétien, who won three successive majority governments partly due to the fact that the right was divided, doesn't think Mr. Ignatieff has the political chops to defeat the Tories.

"[Chrétien] doesn't see [Ignatieff] being able to pull this off and put it together. The guy is in many people's opinion politically brain-dead," said the source.

Another Liberal insider said that the former prime minister was a supporter of Liberal MP Bob Rae (Toronto Centre, Ont.) when he ran for the leadership of the party in 2006, and is still close with Mr. Rae's brother, John Rae, a longtime Chrétien adviser. But recently Mr. Chrétien has been having "second thoughts" about the former NDP premier of Ontario, thinking that perhaps his time as a leadership contender has now passed, said the source.

Penny Collenette, who worked in the Chrétien PMO, and whose husband, David Collenette, was one of the former prime minister's most loyal Cabinet ministers, called the media reports about merger talks "unfounded" and "mischievous." She said the difference in party values and practical electoral considerations would rule out any possibility of uniting the left.

"One interesting and possibly unintended consequence of all the chatter is that the Liberal Party has become stronger and more resolved than ever before. Many people who have not spoken to each other for some time were concerned enough to connect with former colleagues about the speculation. The ties that bind us now have increased and we are unified behind our Leader," said Ms. Collenette in an email to The Hill Times.

Mr. Chrétien and former New Democrat leader Ed Broadbent were both key negotiators in an abortive coalition pact signed by former Liberal leader Stéphane Dion (Saint-Laurent-Cartierville, Que.), Mr. Layton, and Bloc Leader Gilles Duceppe (Laurier-Sainte-Marie, Que.) after the 2008 election, but Mr. Broadbent denied there have been merger talks between the two parties.

He left the door open to a post-election coalition, however, saying that the NDP should present a distinct social democratic platform and then assess the situation after the vote.

"Whatever happens after the next election will be determined by the number of seats that all the parties get," said Mr. Broadbent.

An Ekos poll released last week had the Conservatives at 30.5 per cent public support, compared with 26.3 per cent for the Liberals, and 17.4 per cent for the NDP. The Green Party was at 12.3, and the Bloc Québécois was at 10.5 per cent support nationally. According to a seat projection conducted by Ekos the Tories would lose 28 seats, holding on to only 116 ridings, while the Liberals would increase their seat count from 77 to 94. The NDP would win 39 seats, up from 36, the Bloc would go from 48 to 56, and the Greens would win two seats.

Grit MP Pablo Rodriguez (Honoré-Mercier, Que.), who pleaded not guilty last week to one charge of refusing to comply with a Breathalyzer test with a police order in connection with an April car accident, echoed Ms. Collenette's statement that the merger talk has made the caucus and the party "reunite" behind the leader.

"We have people who are former Progressive Conservatives, people who are centre left, they're all in this huge tent that's called the Liberal Party," he said. "We're encouraging NDP members and other people to come join us, but I would say that if this has had an impact it's a positive impact that made us regroup behind the leader and the Liberal banner."

According to one insider, however, the current Grit solidarity is more about lack of better options, and a bad reaction among the rank-and-file to the possibility of uniting the left. The source noted there is little room for growth in the Atlantic region, Quebec and the West are dead zones for the Liberal Party, and there is no indication they could get the number of seats they need in Ontario to form a minority government.

"Merger should be expunged from people's vocabulary, and coalition maybe if the ducks lined up after an election it would be something to look at. But that's all, that's as far as anyone was willing to go with it. There's no lining up behind Ignatieff as a show of support, it's that the alternatives are just not palatable," said the source.

Recently OLO chief of staff Peter Donolo, in a presentation to caucus, flashed the infamous picture Mr. Harper in an ill-fitting cowboy outfit while attending the Calgary Stampede in the summer of 2005. The point of showing the embarrassing picture of Mr. Harper was to point out to nervous MPs that leaders can be written-off one day, and then win an election six months later.

This summer Mr. Ignatieff will hit the barbecue circuit on a cross-country tour with the hopes of increasing his popularity ahead of the fall session of Parliament.

Last week's newspapers, including The Hill Times, were filled with news and opinion columns on Mr. Ignatieff's leadership troubles, merger talks and coalition talks.

hmacleod@hilltimes.com

The Hill Times