Liberals, who hit 25 per cent in public opinion last week, are not happy with Grit Leader Michael Ignatieff, but his leadership is surviving on life support because as things stand there is no viable candidate who could take his place, say Liberal sources.

After four years in federal politics, and a-year-and-a-half as leader, Mr. Ignatieff has failed to revive the Liberal Party's fortunes, even though support for Prime Minister Stephen Harper's (Calgary Southwest, Alta.) minority Conservative government has rarely climbed above tepid in the four years he's been in office.

An Ekos poll released last week showed Liberal support is continuing its steady decline; the party was at 25.1 per cent, compared to 34.4 per cent for Mr. Harper's Tories. The NDP was at 15.3 per cent, the Bloc Québécois was at 10.6 per cent nationally, and the Green Party had the support of 12 per cent of Canadians. A week earlier, support for the Liberals was at 27.1 per cent, with the Conservatives at 33.6 per cent.

The lowest the Grits have been in the polls in recent years was 24 per cent, under former leader Stéphane Dion (Saint-Laurent-Cartierville, Que.), but only after he led the party to a massive defeat in the 2008 election and then tried to initiate an abortive coalition government agreement with the NDP, prepared by the Bloc.

Last week Mr. Ignatieff told reporters his dismal popularity was because his adversaries had "done a number" on him by portraying him as an interloper who returned to Canada after three decades abroad to become prime minister.

Liberal MP Rob Oliphant (Don Valley West, Ont.) conceded the Tories' "relentless" attacks on Mr. Ignatieff have been "very effective" and have had an impact with voters.

"The biggest challenge to overcome is that people perceive him as being remote," he said. "We haven't been as effective at getting a positive message out, and I'm happy to admit that."

Another Liberal MP, who didn't want to be named, was more blunt.

"I was having a conversation with somebody, and they said, 'What do you expect? He doesn't know what the hell he's doing because he's been 35 years out of the country.'"

He said that when Mr. Ignatieff first became leader, after rivals Bob Rae (Toronto Centre, Ont.) and Dominic LeBlanc (Beauséjour, N.B.) dropped out of the race at the end of 2008, he had the support of many in caucus, but now he is increasingly isolated.

One Liberal insider had more to say.

"The bottom line is the guy doesn't have a whole lot of political aptitude, shall we say. That's not going to turn around. He's been in the House now for several years, he's been the leader de facto for over a year, and the direction is still south," said the insider who spoke to The Hill Times on condition of anonymity. "There would be a lot more interest in dumping him if there was a significant replacement in the wings. And that's doing more to keep him alive than anything else."

The source said Mr. Rae, who was a strong contender for the leadership in 2006, is respected in caucus for being a talented communicator, but is not viewed as a viable replacement because he is tainted in the eyes of the Ontario MPs for his stint as the NDP premier of the province in the 1990s.

Mr. LeBlanc, who has been an MP for 10 years and is the son of the late and former governor general Roméo LeBlanc, is seen as not having enough of a national profile and the political chops to beat Mr. Harper.

Former justice minister Martin Cauchon is "definitely in the game," and is trying to cultivate support for a future leadership bid, including by pushing the "it's-a-Quebecer's-turn" argument. But at this point he's not eliciting much excitement in the party, and he's also going to have a hard fight ahead of him to win back his old seat from NDP MP Thomas Mulcair (Outremont, Que.).

Liberal MP Justin Trudeau (Papineau, Que.) is seen by many in the party as the most serious future contender for the leadership, and he is often asked to speak at party events around the country where his star-power is useful at attracting crowds, Liberal sources told The Hill Times.

"Trudeau is playing the game well and he's hoping to buy time," said a Liberal source. "He's telling people, 'I'm just a young guy, I'm on a learning curve.'... But at the same time there's a campaign going on that his people are running to put him in the leadership race as a credible candidate."

Mr. Trudeau is often seen around Parliament Hill with his assistant, Louis-Alexandre Lanthier, the son of Chrétien organizer Jacqueline Lanthier. Mr. Lanthier, who formerly worked for Sheila Copps, ran Mr. Trudeau's tough battle against popular former Bloc MP Vivian Barbot, in the 2008 election, and the Liberal source said he and a group of volunteer advisers ("they don't appear on office staff lists") are fairly open about their plans to get Mr. Trudeau ready to one day run for the leadership. But, for now, the 38-year-old father of two young children is still biding his time.

"The reality is there is no one person around whom the dissidence will coalesce. Even if Ignatieff got hit by a bus this afternoon, the party is in chaos from a leadership point of view."

In the meantime, Liberals are hoping Canadians will give Mr. Ignatieff a closer look during an election campaign.

"I don't think Canadians are paying that much attention to the federal scene, about 22 per cent of them ever do, and I think elections count a lot," said Liberal MP David McGuinty (Ottawa South, Ont.).

Liberal MP Martha Hall Findlay (Willowdale, Ont.) complained the media are too focused on Mr. Ignatieff's performance and not enough on what the government is and isn't doing in terms of public policy. She said history shows it would be premature to write his political obituary just yet.

"It is the worst job possible to be leader of the opposition," she said.

Meanwhile, as the possibility of the Liberals winning the most seats in Parliament in the next election becomes more and more remote, many in the party are saying they are more open to the possibility of forming a coalition with the NDP.

"What they've decided to do [in the U.K.] is exactly what I think we should be doing in Canada, everyday in the House of Commons," said Mr. McGuinty. "We should be working together to make sure we put the interests of the Canadian people first above all else."

A coalition government agreement would require the consent of the Governor General, however, and there is speculation Mr. Harper will name a replacement for the current GG by July 1. Also, in 2008 the Tories were effective at making political hay out of the separatist Bloc's participation in the agreement, and with the current poll numbers neither the Liberals, nor the NDP would win enough seats in an election to form a coalition government without the Bloc's help.

Toronto Star columnist Chantal Hébert said on last week's The National's At Issue show that former prime minister Jean Chrétien and former NDP leader Ed Broadbent are having coalition discussions.

hmacleod@hilltimes.com

The Hill Times