A leading pollster says the Liberal Party would be "crazy" not to force an election this spring as Prime Minister Stephen Harper attempts to recover from his decision to suspend Parliament and other unpopular moves.

Ekos pollster Frank Graves made the comment during an interview with The Hill Times, acknowledging at the same time there are signs from Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff (Etobicoke-Lakeshore, Ont.) and party insiders that they prefer waiting, possibly until this fall, to topple the minority Conservative government.

Mr. Graves said the Liberals may never have a better time to take on the Conservatives. He said the economy is likely only to improve in the long term, public distrust of Prime Minister Stephen Harper (Calgary Southwest, Alta.) is growing and Mr. Ignatieff, who has not caught on with voters, is unlikely to be able to change his image regardless of what he tries and how long he waits.

"This is their best chance to get rid of this guy," Mr. Graves said. "He's very resilient, the economy is going to improve, Ignatieff is not going to get any better, I don't know why they think things will be better for them in the fall. They're procrastinating; this is their best chance right now."

The announcement by three Conservative MPs that they are retiring from politics has prompted speculation Prime Minister Harper is putting the party on an election footing for either this spring or the fall.

At least one of the outgoing Tories, Rick Casson (Lethbridge, Alta.), told The Hill Times he is ready for retirement and announced his decision to step down last December because he had earlier promised his party riding association he would give them enough warning to find a candidate to succeed him for the next campaign.

The two others, former veterans affairs minister Greg Thompson (New Brunswick Southwest, N.B.) and Jim Abbott (Kootenay-Columbia, B.C.) have cited family reasons or a desire to leave politics after a lengthy period of service to their constituents. Mr. Abbot was first elected in 1993 on the Reform Party wave in British Columbia and Alberta. Mr. Casson was first elected in 1997, and Mr. Thompson, first elected for one term as a Progressive Conservative in 1988, has represented his riding since winning it again in 1997.

Mr. Abbott also likely announced his intention to retire his with the intent of allowing his local party supporters time to line up a replacement. Mr. Thompson's announcement, and his resignation from Cabinet, gave Prime Minister Harper the opportunity to shuffle his Cabinet for other reasons and promote another MP from New Brunswick Rob Moore.

But, despite the public reaction against Prime Minister Harper's controversial decision to prorogue Parliament last December in order to avoid growing pressure on the government over the treatment of war detainees in Afghanistan, Liberal MPs do not appear to be hungry for an election call soon, while New Democrats do not expect one.

"My sense right now is no, for the spring, and who knows in the fall," said NDP MP Paul Dewar (Ottawa South, Ont.).

Liberal MP Wayne Easter (Malpeque, P.E.I.) also played down the chances of a spring election, possibly not even one this fall, despite his view that Prime Minister Harper has widened the gap between himself and a majority of Canadians since last December.

A Liberal decision to attempt to defeat the government will "depend on the issue," Mr. Easter said. "In terms of the big picture, I would be highly doubtful on an election in the spring. I think the fall or next spring is more likely. I think it's all going to come down to whether this guy is going to work the way Parliament was intended to or not, or whether he's going to re-ignite the animosity that he created before the prorogation."

According to reports the registered federal parties are legally required to submit to Elections Canada on nomination contests for candidates, all three opposition parties have made more progress on electing or acclaiming candidates since the last election in October 2008.

The Conservative Party, which protects incumbents from nomination challenges, has reported only 22 nomination contests since then, the latest on Oct. 31, 2009. The Liberals have reported 81 contests, the latest taking place last January 30. The NDP has reported 54 nomination contests, the Bloc Quebec has reported 40 out of 75 seats in Quebec and the Green Party has registered only 29 nomination contests.

It does not appear that any of the parties have ramped up candidate selection for a campaign, although all parties normally also hold nomination contests after the election writs are issued. It allows them to generate local publicity and also highlight star candidates.

An Ekos poll suggests the Conservatives increased support for the first time since Prime Minister Harper's suspension of Parliament, to 33.4 per cent of decided voters compared to 30.3 per cent for the Liberals.

Despite that, Mr. Graves said the Liberals would be wise to pounce, in part because other soundings have found voter distrust of Prime Minister Harper has grown.

"He's reeling right now, his numbers are coming out, his approval numbers," said Mr. Graves. "This thing has had a very corrosive impact on his trustworthiness with the public, outside of his base."

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