The government's record on dealing with climate change is an "exposed flank" for Stephen Harper's Conservatives, which the Liberals could exploit as a wedge issue to win votes in the next federal election, says one leading pollster.

"It is already acting as a significant break on Conservative fortunes and it has been for sometime," said Ekos pollster Frank Graves.

A recent Ekos poll conducted in the run-up to the UN Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen, which will run from Dec. 7 to 18, revealed that while the environment still lags behind the economy, and social issues on Canadians' list of priorities, as fears abate over the global economic recession the issue of climate change is gaining traction. About 31 per cent of those polled said the economy was their biggest concern, followed by 27 per cent choosing social issues, and 18.4 per cent said climate change, slightly ahead of fiscal issues at 17.8 per cent.

The current level of public concern over the environment is consistent with where it's been for the past decade. Although in 2007 it briefly became the top issue, when the economy nosedived so did worries about climate change. Right now ordinary Canadians aren't that aware of what's going on in Copenhagen, but they also weren't aware of the Kyoto Protocol on greenhouse gas reductions, which was signed in 1997, until after the international negotiations, said Mr. Graves.

"It's now showing some signs that it's moving up again. My prediction would be that as the economic anxieties relax their hold on the public, which they are doing, and as this issue gains further momentum following Copenhagen it will definitely move up the charts again and there's a very good chance it will be the most important issue within the next year. I would predict it will go to the top issue again," he said.

And if that happens it could spell trouble for the Harper government, which has been consistently pilloried by the environmental community and is seen internationally as a laggard among developed nations on the climate change file, said Mr. Graves.

"Canada's negotiating positions are widely viewed as unhelpful and unrealistic. Canada has low credibility at the [Copenhagen] talks because we have done so little at home to cut our emissions, and because the government abandoned our Kyoto target. Unlike many of its peers, Canada does not appear to feel a sense of urgency in tackling climate change. Canada's targets and negotiating positions are set at the political level, and even the best negotiators would not be able to make them acceptable to the other countries at the table," said Clare Demerse, associate director of climate change at the Pembina Institute.

Mr. Graves said it would be nearly impossible for the Conservatives to form a majority government in the next election if they do not develop a "plausible" strategy for dealing with climate change that should at the very least fall in line with U.S. policies, which the Harper government has pledged to do to avoid trade penalties on Canadian exports.

"Canada is seeking a new international climate change agreement that balances environmental protection and economic prosperity, has a long-term focus, supports the development and deployment of clean technologies, supports constructive and ambitious global action, and includes commitments from all major economies," said Sujata Raisinghani, a spokesperson for Environment Canada.

After the last federal election the opposition Liberals appeared to be backing away from the environment as one of their main issues after voters rejected their leader, former environment minister Stéphane Dion (Saint-Laurent-Cartierville, Que.), and his "Green Shift" carbon tax proposal. But Mr. Graves said his firm has studied the election results and found that 50 per cent of voters approved of the measures in the Green Shift, they just didn't like Mr. Dion.

Recently Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff (Etobicoke-Lakeshore, Que.) gave a speech at Laval University, in Quebec, in which he laid out an ambitious environmental platform. Notably, he committed to using 1990 as the base year for greenhouse gas reductions, which is the baseline used by the EU and Japan, whereas the Conservatives have said they will cut GHGs by 20 per cent under 2006 levels by 2020.

"When it comes to the environment, there's a chasm between what Canadians are ready to do and what our federal government is ready to do. ... In Copenhagen, I would have supported an agreement by all countries on the planet in favour of measurable, verifiable, and binding targets to reduce carbon pollution," said Mr. Ignatieff.

Mr. Graves said if the environment becomes a bigger issue in the next year, then the Liberals would likely be the main beneficiaries in the next election.

"The Liberals still do have relatively good bona fides on the environment. I think Ignatieff's had a bit of an epiphany," he said.

Both Environment Minister Jim Prentice (Calgary Centre-North, Alta.), as well as Prime Minister Harper will attend the Climate Change Negotiations, along with Canada's Chief Negotiator Michael Martin, a career diplomat.

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