Both the government and opposition parties looking to score political points over the H1N1 pandemic flu vaccine rollout and the government's management of it could be punished by voters depending on how serious it gets, says pollster Nik Nanos.

"It's actually a little early to tell how this will play out politically. H1N1 was more of a theoretical policy issue until vaccination centres were opened around the country," he said. "It's a very tricky issue because a politician that looks to politicize this could actually be punished by voters. As of yet, there hasn't really been a significant problem."

Mr. Nanos said there wouldn't be any benefit for politicians who "manufacture a problem" where there isn't one.

"However, if there is any kind of breakdown in the system, I think that would be the time for opposition parties to kind of step up and ask questions about what the government's doing, but in the absence of a significant problem, it wouldn't be politically prudent to politicize this issue."

H1N1 has been politicized by both the government and the opposition parties. The Liberals, for instance, claimed the government sent body bags to aboriginal reserves instead of preparation kits, but First Nations leaders at the reserve noted later that they had asked for the body bags in its regular shipment of health supplies.

The Liberals also argue the Conservative government has spent more on partisan advertising than pandemic preparation.

The Liberals have been sending out rapid response reality checks daily to the media on the government's handling of the issue.

The issue is discussed daily in Question Period and Health Minister Leona Aglukkaq (Nunavut) and other Cabinet ministers are under fire. Conservatives, meanwhile, use opposition gaffes to attack opposition MPs as well in the daily Question Period. Last week, the House also had an emergency debate and an opposition day motion on the issue.

The issue of queue-jumping also came up when it was clear there would be a shortage of vaccines for high-risk people such as pregnant women, children, and older people who have chronic conditions.

Last week, Liberal MP Hedy Fry (Vancouver Centre, B.C.) reportedly said there should be a special H1N1 vaccine clinic on the Hill for MPs and Hill staffers including security guards and bureaucrats. Other parties attacked her comment for suggesting MPs jump the queue because "Members of Parliament are at risk. We shake hands I don't know how many times a day with people."

But Ms. Fry told The Hill Times last week that her comments were taken out of context and that she was referring to a regular flu clinic on the Hill which had been around for years, but was cancelled this year. "That's all I said. I did not suggest anything about a clinic for MPs. This would be the ludicrous thing to do," she said.

Ms. Fry said MPs shouldn't get priority treatment, but if MPs fall into a high risk category, they should not be exempt from having an H1N1 flu shot just because they are MPs and it might look politically bad if they get one. She argued that her party is not politicizing the issue, but merely asking questions about an epidemic that needs to be addressed. "It's not about politics. Conservatives are going to be susceptible, NDP are going to be susceptible. This is not about that. This is about getting answers for a very serious problem that has occurred and that they did not plan for."

Chief Public Health Officer Dr. David Butler-Jones told The Hill Times that politicians are over-politicizing H1N1 by speculating and spreading misinformation which makes the job of public health officials more difficult.

"For example, the repeated comment that because we specified the number of doses we wanted in August that somehow that would delay the vaccine. In fact we ordered the vaccine when we signed the contract eight years ago, that all the doses that are bottled in the plants in Quebec would come to Canadians—that need would be met before any doses went anywhere else so it didn't matter whether we settled on the number," said Dr. Butler-Jones.

Dr. Butler-Jones said the Liberal leader raised this issue last week, but it is a misconception and he would rather explain the situation to anybody that has questions on it than have people speculating publicly and adding to the confusion of H1N1.

"The nature of public health is political in a small p sense," he told The Hill Times. "Public Health is the organized efforts of society to improve health and well-being and reduce inequalities and so by that very nature it's about communities and societies coming together so it is very political but it really should not be politicized in the sense of partisanship."

The government was also criticized for having a contract with GlaxoSmithLine Inc. to sole source the sought-after vaccine. Canada has ordered 50 million doses and about six million were administered in the first two weeks since it became publicly available to those considered most susceptible to the potentially fatal virus.

Last week, however, the supply of the vaccine slowed down, as the Quebec manufacturing plant halted its adjuvanted or more common vaccine production for unadjuvanted, which is the version of the vaccine without the immune-boosting adjuvant, which was originally recommended for pregnant women. The slowed down supply of the vaccine meant some clinics had to close their doors and that the general public will have to wait longer to have the shot available to them.

Last week, Bloc Québécois MP Claude Guimond (Rimouski-Neigette-Temiscouata, Que.), showed up to the House with a surgical mask on to vote against Conservative MP Candice Hoeppner's (Portage-Lisgar, Man.) private member's bill repealing the long-gun registry. Mr. Guimond, whose daughter had H1N1 and was waiting for confirmation from doctors if he also has it, could not stay home because the Conservative Party refused to "pair" him with one of their MPs. Bloc Québécois Leader Gilles Duceppe (Laurier-Sainte-Marie, Que.) told reporters that their party asked the Conservatives twice to pair Mr. Guimond with someone but the party refused.

"I think it's just disgusting from the Tories to have such an attitude," Mr. Duceppe said.

PMO press secretary Dimitri Soudas said "pairing wasn't an option" last week.

NDP MP Niki Ashton (Churchill, Man.), found herself in the spotlight after The Hill Times two weeks ago surveyed 33 federal politicians on whether they would get the vaccine. She said she wasn't sure whether she would get it, despite being a young woman and therefore among the groups most susceptible to the virus. Her riding also has a large aboriginal population, for which swine flu infection rates are five times higher than the general population. Ms. Ashton felt some heat, and said she will get the vaccine when it becomes publicly available.

Ms. Ashton said that "it scares" her that people look up to MPs as role models on a medical decision which could be better answered by medical experts.

"There is room for political debate, absolutely, on so many of these things, but the promotion of whether or not people should get their vaccine should be based on people in the healthcare field, not in the political field," she said.

Conservative MP Tim Uppal (Edmonton-Sherwood Park, Ont.), a member of the House Health Committee, said that H1N1 has become over-politicized and that MPs need to be careful about what they say because it's a sensitive issue.

"When we talk about the health of people and the nation as a whole, we're talking about the safety of the vaccine. We have to be prepared that it's not just a personal opinion, sometimes our personal opinions will be known to many others so I think we as Members of Parliament should have the responsibility of being careful about what we say," said Mr. Uppal.

Mr. Nanos said despite the lack of a "significant problem" currently, management of H1N1 will be the issue for both the government and opposition parties who are looking to gain political points. "It's not likely to decide the outcome of the election or anyone's future, but it could easily be a contributing factor."

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