The minority governing Conservatives, who now hold 143 seats, would have won a majority government with 167 seats if an election were held today, but Liberals put on a brave face last week saying they're not worried about the most recent Ekos poll showing the Tories with a 15 point lead over the Grits and a growing trend for Conservatives.

"Polls reflect a moment in time only and quite frankly I don't put much stock in them," said Liberal MP Bryon Wilfert (Richmond Hill, Ont.) in an interview with The Hill Times.

"I don't think we should get too excited when polls are up in our favour and I don't think we should get too excited if they're down."

According to a poll released last week by Ekos for the CBC, the Harper Conservatives nationally had 40.7 per cent support, the Liberals 25.5 per cent, the New Democrats 14.3 per cent, the Green Party 10.5 per cent and the Bloc 9.1 per cent. Based on these numbers and Ekos' seat projection model, if an election had occurred last week, the Tories would have won 167 seats, the Liberals 68, the Bloc Québécois 50 seats and the NDP 23 seats.

In the last federal election, the Tories won 143 seats, the Liberals 77, the Bloc 49, the NDP 37 and two Independent MPs. It takes 155 seats in the 308 seat House of Commons to win a majority government. The poll of 2,729 respondents was conducted between Oct. 7 and Oct. 13 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 1.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Ekos pollster Frank Graves told The Hill Times that seat projections are a rough guide and should be taken "with a grain of salt."

"These are just to provide an illustration of what might happen if these hypothetical poll numbers were translated into actual elections. We know that there isn't going to be an election [in the near future] so they're almost more for anecdotal curiosity than anything else," said Mr. Graves.

A day before the October 2008 federal election, Ekos projected 136 seats for the Conservatives, 84 for the Liberals, 35 NDP, 51 Bloc and two Independent seats. And two days prior to the Jan. 23, 2006 federal election, Ekos projected a "Conservative minority of about 125 seats, plus or minus five seats." As for the other parties, the company did not offer any specific seat numbers but projected "a Liberal lead opposition with modestly strengthened representation for both the Bloc and NDP," and added that "obviously any major last weekend shifts could alter the outcome [particularly in Ontario]."

In the 2006 federal election, Conservatives won a minority government with 124 seats, Liberals 103, Bloc 51 and the NDP 29 seats.

Another Harris-Decima Research poll that came out last week also showed that the Tories are leading the pack nationally with 35 per cent support followed by the Liberals with 28 per cent, the New Democrats with 15 per cent and the Bloc and Green Party tied at 10 per cent. This telephone poll of about 2000 respondents was conducted between Oct. 1-12 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

In not-for-attribution-based interviews, Liberals said their fortunes will not turn around unless their party proves to Canadians that they're a government-in-waiting with better ideas on important public policy issues than their principal opponent.

"Liberals have to provide an alternative. It's not enough to simply depend on Harper self-immolation, you've got to provide an alternative," one veteran Liberal said. "The real driver here seems to be the disenchantment with Ignatieff, the inability to identify with anything that can say, 'Yes, there's the guy I want to support.' There's nothing there, he's not putting it out there."

The Liberal said the party needs to give Canadians something to hang their hat on. "He's got to be able to say that if we were in power, we would have a program which would and itemize some stuff. It doesn't have to be in exquisite detail."

But Mr. Wilfert identified Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff's (Etobicoke Lakeshore, Ont.) recent speeches in Vancouver, Ottawa and Toronto on the environment, economy and foreign affairs and said that his leader has already started to put out his ideas on public policy issues.

"Michael is clearly doing that with his speech on the economy in Toronto, his policy on foreign policy in Ottawa, his speech at the Vancouver Club on environment and energy. The leader has listened, he's now responding and I would suggest put your seat belt on and it's going to be an interesting ride over the next little while," said Mr. Wilfert.

But another top Liberal said that rather than just spelling out party's policies, Mr. Ignatieff should try to connect with average Canadians by explaining the reasons with real life examples and why he came up with any particular policy.

"You have to talk about people who are affected, identify them, make it a very personal thing. For example, we're doing this because people like Mrs. O'Leary who live in my riding who can't afford their rent as well as their pharmaceutical expenses or whatever the issue could be," said the Liberal.

The source said that if Mr. Ignatieff had started to talk about his party's policies a while ago, the polling numbers would have been different as simply criticizing the government without offering any real alternative doesn't yield positive results.

"I wish it had been done a long time ago and then the positions in the polls would likely be reversed. Just criticizing the government without actually having the alternatives in place doesn't have all that much affect."

Meanwhile, Mr. Graves said that the onus should not be just on Mr. Ignatieff to come up with good public policies. "The pressure shouldn't be just on Mr. Ignatieff, it should be the Liberal Party and the team around Mr. Ignatieff in coming up with a compelling platform, some new ideas," he said.

The Hill Times