Friday, Feb. 27, 2015
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POLLING & POLLSTERS
Will the NDP let a Prairie opportunity go by?

Despite the Conservatives being down in support and new riding boundaries, the NDP may not make the gains it could in the Prairies.


  
How likely are Liberal gains in southwestern Ontario?

The Liberals have London and the surrounding region in their sights, but southwestern Ontario may be a tough nut to crack.


  
The good, the bad, and the ugly in 2014 polls

The polling industry had some high profile electoral successes in 2014, but its errors may prove more consequential for 2015.


  
NDP still the party to beat in Quebec

Despite poor polling and byelection results in the rest of Canada, the New Democrats remain the party of choice for Quebec’s francophones.


  
Will a new party in Quebec change the game in 2015?

Forces et Démocratie may play little role in the next election, but it has the potential to be a spoiler.


  
New Brunswick shows little can change in a year

Last week’s provincial election in New Brunswick had some parallels with the current federal situation, but also carried some warnings.


  
Summer lull unlikely to improve Tory fortunes

The Senate scandal is still a political story, and one that is likely to explode again once Mike Duffy’s trial begins. The summer was never going to be the time for the Conservatives to regain the lead or improve their position by default. The fall is unlikely to be any kinder.


  
Ontario polls show how it should be done

The polls were not exactly the miss they have been made out to be. What’s more, some polls provided good examples of how to do it right.


  
Nothing new in confusing Ontario polls: Éric Grenier

The polls may be in disagreement, but Ontario has been indecisive in the run-up to an election before.


  
Approval ratings point to advantage for NDP and Mulcair

The Liberals and Conservatives may be leading in the polls, but Mulcair has better personal numbers.


  
Polls do their job in Quebec

After a string of bad calls, the polls in Quebec were on the money.


  
Who is the frontrunner to win in Ontario?

The polls cannot agree on which party is best placed to win the next election in Ontario.


  
Quebec provincial politics likely to make waves in Ottawa

With a Parti Québécois majority government a real possibility, federal parties in Ottawa won’t be able to sidestep Quebec provincial politics in 2014.


  
Will polls get back on track in 2014?

It was a very bad year for polling,after a rough one in 2012.The coming year provides a chance for political polling to get back on track,but only if the opportunity is seized.


  
The dangers of great expectations

The Liberals have the most to lose in today’s four federal byelections. But should they?


  
Lessons learned from Nova Scotia polling

The polls in Nova Scotia got it right. What can we learn from this success?


  
Has the Liberal brand rebounded?

After a near-death experience, the Liberal brand seems to have recovered.


  
Green Party could win second seat in Victoria in 2015

Though the 2015 election might be won or lost in Ontario and Quebec, B.C. could be the most interesting province to watch.


  
Polls are king in U.S., while in Canada they're derided: Grenier

'In the U.S., everyone seems to be celebrating the rise of the data wonk, yet in Canada, polling failures [are] pushing [the] opposite way. Polling aggregators have stunk in Canada [because] of bad polls from which to aggregate. Puts wind in [the] sails of chitchat pundits,' says Kevin Milligan.


  
Trudeau attacks betray Tory concern with the polls: Grenier

Apparently, not everyone believes that mid-mandate polls mean nothing.


  

Parliamentary Calendar
Friday, February 27, 2015
HILL LIFE & PEOPLE SLIDESHOWS
Hill media, staffers send off PMO's Jason MacDonald at the Métropolitain Brasserie's bar Feb. 20, 2015

The Hill Times Photograph by Jake Wright
Bloomberg's Theo Argitis and PMO chief of staff Ray Novak.
The Hill Times Photograph by Jake Wright
The PMO's outgoing Director of Communications Jason MacDonald.
The Hill Times Photograph by Jake Wright
PMO executive assistant Stephen Staley, PMO special assistant Myles Atwood, and Tory Party national campaign manager Jenni Byrne.
The Hill Times Photograph by Jake Wright
PMO deputy chief of staff Howard Anglin and Postmedia's Stephen Maher.
The Hill Times Photograph by Jake Wright
The Ottawa Citizen's Jason Fekete with the man of the hour, Jason MacDonald.
The Hill Times Photograph by Jake Wright
The Toronto Star's Tonda MacCharles.
The Hill Times Photograph by Jake Wright
CBC's Chris Hall and Melissa Lantsman, Finance Minister Joe Oliver's director of communications.
The Hill Times Photograph by Jake Wright
Michael White, Finance Minister Joe Oliver's policy director.

MICHAEL DE ADDER'S TAKE