Sunday, Aug. 30, 2015
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POLLING & POLLSTERS
What the Conservatives, NDP, and Liberals need to win: Éric Grenier

Whether it starts early or late, the election campaign is on. And each of the parties is looking over the electoral map to find their own path to victory.


  
NDP whittles away at the Conservatives’ voting coalition

  
Hard to sugar coat Conservatives’ polling data

It suggests the party may have lost 10 points in national support, or roughly a quarter of the people who voted for them in 2011. The Conservatives benefit from a division of the centre-left vote, but the good news ends there.


  
Alberta latest case of a volatile electorate

More and more voters can no longer be taken for granted. And that’s a good thing.


  
Quebec wild card in 2015 election

Quebec had a lot of surprises in store in 2011. It will only get worse in 2015.


  
Will the NDP let a Prairie opportunity go by?

Despite the Conservatives being down in support and new riding boundaries, the NDP may not make the gains it could in the Prairies.


  
How likely are Liberal gains in southwestern Ontario?

The Liberals have London and the surrounding region in their sights, but southwestern Ontario may be a tough nut to crack.


  
The good, the bad, and the ugly in 2014 polls

The polling industry had some high profile electoral successes in 2014, but its errors may prove more consequential for 2015.


  
NDP still the party to beat in Quebec

Despite poor polling and byelection results in the rest of Canada, the New Democrats remain the party of choice for Quebec’s francophones.


  
Will a new party in Quebec change the game in 2015?

Forces et Démocratie may play little role in the next election, but it has the potential to be a spoiler.


  
New Brunswick shows little can change in a year

Last week’s provincial election in New Brunswick had some parallels with the current federal situation, but also carried some warnings.


  
Summer lull unlikely to improve Tory fortunes

The Senate scandal is still a political story, and one that is likely to explode again once Mike Duffy’s trial begins. The summer was never going to be the time for the Conservatives to regain the lead or improve their position by default. The fall is unlikely to be any kinder.


  
Ontario polls show how it should be done

The polls were not exactly the miss they have been made out to be. What’s more, some polls provided good examples of how to do it right.


  
Nothing new in confusing Ontario polls: Éric Grenier

The polls may be in disagreement, but Ontario has been indecisive in the run-up to an election before.


  
Approval ratings point to advantage for NDP and Mulcair

The Liberals and Conservatives may be leading in the polls, but Mulcair has better personal numbers.


  
Polls do their job in Quebec

After a string of bad calls, the polls in Quebec were on the money.


  
Who is the frontrunner to win in Ontario?

The polls cannot agree on which party is best placed to win the next election in Ontario.


  
Quebec provincial politics likely to make waves in Ottawa

With a Parti Québécois majority government a real possibility, federal parties in Ottawa won’t be able to sidestep Quebec provincial politics in 2014.


  
Will polls get back on track in 2014?

It was a very bad year for polling,after a rough one in 2012.The coming year provides a chance for political polling to get back on track,but only if the opportunity is seized.


  
The dangers of great expectations

The Liberals have the most to lose in today’s four federal byelections. But should they?


  
Parliamentary Calendar
Tuesday, September 1, 2015
HILL LIFE & PEOPLE SLIDESHOWS
MPs, federal candidates take part in Ottawa's Capital Pride Parade, Aug. 23 Aug. 24, 2015

The Hill Times photograph by Rachel Aiello

On Sunday, Aug. 23 Ottawa celebrated its 30th annual pride march through downtown. All four main political parties had a contingent in the parade, with the Liberals first in the line of marchers. Here Orleans candidate Andrew Leslie and a slightly hidden Ottawa South MP David McGuinty walk together, alongside dozens of supporters. 

The Hill Times photograph by Rachel Aiello

Ottawa Centre Liberal candidate Catherine McKenna. 

The Hill Times photograph by Rachel Aiello

More Liberal supporters march in the parade. Liberal MPP for Ottawa Centre Yasir Naqvi, Ottawa-West Nepean candidate Anita Vandenbeld, Kanata-Carleton candidate Karen McCrimmon, and Hull-Alymer candidate Greg Fergus were marching too. 

The Hill Times photograph by Rachel Aiello

The local Green party contingent in the parade threw their support around Kanata-Carleton candidate Andrew West. 

The Hill Times photograph by Rachel Aiello

The New Democrats making their way onto the parade route, flanked by local unions UFCW Locals 175 & 633, and the Public Service Alliance of Canada (PSAC). 

The Hill Times photograph by Rachel Aiello

NDP candidate for Orleans Nancy Tremblay was all smiles next to Ottawa Centre MP Paul Dewar. 

The Hill Times photograph by Rachel Aiello

Paul Dewar and the NDP supporters were yelling "Happy Pride" as they marched. Carleton candidate kc Larocque, Kanata-Carleton candidate John Hansen, Ottawa South candidate George Brown, and Nepean candidate Sean Devine were there, too. 

The Hill Times photograph by Rachel Aiello

Despite a petition looking to ban the LGBTory contingent from marching in the parade, about two-dozen supporters took part, holding signs that included "I kissed a Tory and I liked it," and "I am Conservative, I support trans rights." The latter was inspired by backlash over Bill C-279,  the trans bill of rights that was killed by Conservative Senators during the last session of Parliament. 

The Hill Times photograph by Rachel Aiello

Nepean Carleton MPP Lisa MacLeod, and Ottawa Centre federal candidate Damian Konstantinakos (far right) were the only politicians The Hill Times spotted among the LGBTory contingent.

Ontario Conservative MPP Lisa MacLeod. She also marched earlier this summer in the Toronto Pride Parade alongside Ontario PC leader Patrick Brown. 

The Hill Times photograph by Rachel Aiello

The LGBTorys were joined by Melissa Hudson, the chair of Trans-Action Group, a non-profit focused on Transgender health and employment. As well, some marchers carried signs, seen above, that list the 18 federal MPs past and present who "stand with" the LGBTorys. 

The Hill Times photograph by Rachel Aiello

The LGBTory contingent calls themselves the 'Rainbow Conservatives of Canada" according to a handout they had at their tent set up as part of the street fair alongside the parade. All parties had sign-up lists at their booths, looking to gain supporters and volunteers. On the handout, it says they want to "break the left wing monopoly on the LGBT community," and includes quotes from former Foreign Affairs minister John Baird, and former VP of the Ottawa Centre Conservative Association Fred Litwin

MICHAEL DE ADDER'S TAKE



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