Friday, July 3, 2015
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POLLING & POLLSTERS
Hard to sugar coat Conservatives’ polling data

It suggests the party may have lost 10 points in national support, or roughly a quarter of the people who voted for them in 2011. The Conservatives benefit from a division of the centre-left vote, but the good news ends there.


  
Alberta latest case of a volatile electorate

More and more voters can no longer be taken for granted. And that’s a good thing.


  
Quebec wild card in 2015 election

Quebec had a lot of surprises in store in 2011. It will only get worse in 2015.


  
Will the NDP let a Prairie opportunity go by?

Despite the Conservatives being down in support and new riding boundaries, the NDP may not make the gains it could in the Prairies.


  
How likely are Liberal gains in southwestern Ontario?

The Liberals have London and the surrounding region in their sights, but southwestern Ontario may be a tough nut to crack.


  
The good, the bad, and the ugly in 2014 polls

The polling industry had some high profile electoral successes in 2014, but its errors may prove more consequential for 2015.


  
NDP still the party to beat in Quebec

Despite poor polling and byelection results in the rest of Canada, the New Democrats remain the party of choice for Quebec’s francophones.


  
Will a new party in Quebec change the game in 2015?

Forces et Démocratie may play little role in the next election, but it has the potential to be a spoiler.


  
New Brunswick shows little can change in a year

Last week’s provincial election in New Brunswick had some parallels with the current federal situation, but also carried some warnings.


  
Summer lull unlikely to improve Tory fortunes

The Senate scandal is still a political story, and one that is likely to explode again once Mike Duffy’s trial begins. The summer was never going to be the time for the Conservatives to regain the lead or improve their position by default. The fall is unlikely to be any kinder.


  
Ontario polls show how it should be done

The polls were not exactly the miss they have been made out to be. What’s more, some polls provided good examples of how to do it right.


  
Nothing new in confusing Ontario polls: Éric Grenier

The polls may be in disagreement, but Ontario has been indecisive in the run-up to an election before.


  
Approval ratings point to advantage for NDP and Mulcair

The Liberals and Conservatives may be leading in the polls, but Mulcair has better personal numbers.


  
Polls do their job in Quebec

After a string of bad calls, the polls in Quebec were on the money.


  
Who is the frontrunner to win in Ontario?

The polls cannot agree on which party is best placed to win the next election in Ontario.


  
Quebec provincial politics likely to make waves in Ottawa

With a Parti Québécois majority government a real possibility, federal parties in Ottawa won’t be able to sidestep Quebec provincial politics in 2014.


  
Will polls get back on track in 2014?

It was a very bad year for polling,after a rough one in 2012.The coming year provides a chance for political polling to get back on track,but only if the opportunity is seized.


  
The dangers of great expectations

The Liberals have the most to lose in today’s four federal byelections. But should they?


  
Lessons learned from Nova Scotia polling

The polls in Nova Scotia got it right. What can we learn from this success?


  
Has the Liberal brand rebounded?

After a near-death experience, the Liberal brand seems to have recovered.


  
Parliamentary Calendar
Sunday, July 12, 2015
HILL LIFE & PEOPLE SLIDESHOWS
Politicians, Candidates come out for Toronto Pride Parade, June 28, 2015 June 29, 2015

Photo courtesy of Twitter

On Sunday, Toronto didn't have to wait for the rain to stop for the rainbows to appear, or the politicians. Pictured here, federal and Ontario Liberal leaders Justin Trudeau and Kathleen Wynne, joined by MPs Chrystia Freeland, Carolyn Bennett, and Bob Rae. Candidates Bill Morneau, Salma Zahid, and Bill Blair were there, too.

Photo courtesy of Twitter

NDP Leader Tom Mulcair, really playing up the beard thing at this year's pride.

Photo courtesy of Twitter

Green Party Leader Elizabeth May alongside candidates Gord Miller, Mike Schreiner, and deputy leader of the Green Party of Ontario, Mark Daye.

Photo courtesy of Twitter

A first this year was a Conservative contingent actually walking in the parade. They were calling themselves the LGTBTories. Among them were MP Bernard Trottier, candidate for Toronto-Centre Julian Di Battista, and Status of Women and Labour Minister Kellie Leitch.

Photo courtesy of Twitter

NDP Toronto MPs Matthew Kellway and Craig Scott, with Ontario NDP Leader Andrea Horwath and candidate for Toronto-Centre Linda McQuaig.

Photo courtesy of Twitter

Liberal MP Carolyn Bennett carrying the banner with the Women's College Hospital in the parade.

Photo courtesy of Twitter

In an appearance that has sparked some backlash among social-conservative Conservatives, MPPs Jack MacLaren and Lisa MacLeod marched alongside Ontario Progressive Conservative Party Leader Patrick Brown.

MICHAEL DE ADDER'S TAKE



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