Tuesday, Oct. 21, 2014
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POLLING & POLLSTERS
New Brunswick shows little can change in a year

Last week’s provincial election in New Brunswick had some parallels with the current federal situation, but also carried some warnings.


  
Summer lull unlikely to improve Tory fortunes

The Senate scandal is still a political story, and one that is likely to explode again once Mike Duffy’s trial begins. The summer was never going to be the time for the Conservatives to regain the lead or improve their position by default. The fall is unlikely to be any kinder.


  
Ontario polls show how it should be done

The polls were not exactly the miss they have been made out to be. What’s more, some polls provided good examples of how to do it right.


  
Nothing new in confusing Ontario polls: Éric Grenier

The polls may be in disagreement, but Ontario has been indecisive in the run-up to an election before.


  
Approval ratings point to advantage for NDP and Mulcair

The Liberals and Conservatives may be leading in the polls, but Mulcair has better personal numbers.


  
Polls do their job in Quebec

After a string of bad calls, the polls in Quebec were on the money.


  
Who is the frontrunner to win in Ontario?

The polls cannot agree on which party is best placed to win the next election in Ontario.


  
Quebec provincial politics likely to make waves in Ottawa

With a Parti Québécois majority government a real possibility, federal parties in Ottawa won’t be able to sidestep Quebec provincial politics in 2014.


  
Will polls get back on track in 2014?

It was a very bad year for polling,after a rough one in 2012.The coming year provides a chance for political polling to get back on track,but only if the opportunity is seized.


  
The dangers of great expectations

The Liberals have the most to lose in today’s four federal byelections. But should they?


  
Lessons learned from Nova Scotia polling

The polls in Nova Scotia got it right. What can we learn from this success?


  
Has the Liberal brand rebounded?

After a near-death experience, the Liberal brand seems to have recovered.


  
Green Party could win second seat in Victoria in 2015

Though the 2015 election might be won or lost in Ontario and Quebec, B.C. could be the most interesting province to watch.


  
Polls are king in U.S., while in Canada they're derided: Grenier

'In the U.S., everyone seems to be celebrating the rise of the data wonk, yet in Canada, polling failures [are] pushing [the] opposite way. Polling aggregators have stunk in Canada [because] of bad polls from which to aggregate. Puts wind in [the] sails of chitchat pundits,' says Kevin Milligan.


  
Trudeau attacks betray Tory concern with the polls: Grenier

Apparently, not everyone believes that mid-mandate polls mean nothing.


  
Don’t give up on polls, demand better: Grenier

After the miss in B.C., the polls need to get better. Both for the sake of themselves and voters.


  
Public opinion polls point to opportunity for Trudeau federal Liberals

With greater attention comes greater risk for the Liberals, but also an opportunity not to be missed.


  
Polls remain mixed for Mulcair after one year

  
The danger in underestimating Trudeau

The gamble is not in banking on Trudeau to resurrect the Liberal Party—it is in discounting his appeal.


  
Political consensus in Quebec goes missing

Quebecers split at both the provincial and federal levels.


  

Parliamentary Calendar
Tuesday, October 21, 2014
HILL LIFE & PEOPLE SLIDESHOWS
Earnscliffe's 25th anniversary shindig in Ottawa: Oct. 15, 2014 Oct. 20, 2014

The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
The crowd at Earnscliffe's 25th anniversary party on Oct. 15 at its Chambers Building office in Ottawa. About 250 people came out to the party.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
Labour Minister Kellie Leitch and CTV's Power Play host Don Martin.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
Dan Rogers and Craig Robinson.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
Jim Patrick and Bernard Lord.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
Hugh Winsor and CTV's Power Play host Don Martin.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
William Stairs.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
Former prime minister Joe Clark.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
Hugh Segal, Harry Near, and Michael Robinson.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
Hugh Segal and Harry Near regaled the crowd with some colourful speeches.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
The crowd.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
Bloomberg's Theo Argitis and Earnscliffe's Robin Sears chat inside Mr. Sears' office.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
It was a standing-room-only kind of an affair, with some guests standing in the stairway to hear the speeches upstairs.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
Pollster Bruce Anderson who used to work at Earnscliffe at one time.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
Earnscliffe's Peter Harris, left, Hill & Knowlton's Elizabeth Roscoe, centre.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
Bruce Young, head of Earnscliffe's B.C. office, talks about how the West Coast office of the firm came to be.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
Kaveri Braid leads the Saskatchewan office.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
Earnscliffe's principal in Ottawa, Daniel Bernier.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
Bill Fox, one of the founders of Earnscliffe along with Harry Near and Hugh Segal, chats up the crowd.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
The Wall Street Journal's Paul Vieira.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
CIBC's director of government relations Michel Liboiron.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
NDP national director Anne McGrath.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
Earnscliffe's Michael Robinson and his children, Katie Robinson and Craig Robinson.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
Tom Clark, host of Global TV's The West Block.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
Earnscliffe principal Velma McColl shares memories from her more than 10 years with Earnscliffe.

MICHAEL DE ADDER'S TAKE