Saturday, Feb. 13, 2016
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POLLING & POLLSTERS
What the Conservatives, NDP, and Liberals need to win: Éric Grenier

Whether it starts early or late, the election campaign is on. And each of the parties is looking over the electoral map to find their own path to victory.


  
NDP whittles away at the Conservatives’ voting coalition

  
Hard to sugar coat Conservatives’ polling data

It suggests the party may have lost 10 points in national support, or roughly a quarter of the people who voted for them in 2011. The Conservatives benefit from a division of the centre-left vote, but the good news ends there.


  
Alberta latest case of a volatile electorate

More and more voters can no longer be taken for granted. And that’s a good thing.


  
Quebec wild card in 2015 election

Quebec had a lot of surprises in store in 2011. It will only get worse in 2015.


  
Will the NDP let a Prairie opportunity go by?

Despite the Conservatives being down in support and new riding boundaries, the NDP may not make the gains it could in the Prairies.


  
How likely are Liberal gains in southwestern Ontario?

The Liberals have London and the surrounding region in their sights, but southwestern Ontario may be a tough nut to crack.


  
The good, the bad, and the ugly in 2014 polls

The polling industry had some high profile electoral successes in 2014, but its errors may prove more consequential for 2015.


  
NDP still the party to beat in Quebec

Despite poor polling and byelection results in the rest of Canada, the New Democrats remain the party of choice for Quebec’s francophones.


  
Will a new party in Quebec change the game in 2015?

Forces et Démocratie may play little role in the next election, but it has the potential to be a spoiler.


  
New Brunswick shows little can change in a year

Last week’s provincial election in New Brunswick had some parallels with the current federal situation, but also carried some warnings.


  
Summer lull unlikely to improve Tory fortunes

The Senate scandal is still a political story, and one that is likely to explode again once Mike Duffy’s trial begins. The summer was never going to be the time for the Conservatives to regain the lead or improve their position by default. The fall is unlikely to be any kinder.


  
Ontario polls show how it should be done

The polls were not exactly the miss they have been made out to be. What’s more, some polls provided good examples of how to do it right.


  
Nothing new in confusing Ontario polls: Éric Grenier

The polls may be in disagreement, but Ontario has been indecisive in the run-up to an election before.


  
Approval ratings point to advantage for NDP and Mulcair

The Liberals and Conservatives may be leading in the polls, but Mulcair has better personal numbers.


  
Polls do their job in Quebec

After a string of bad calls, the polls in Quebec were on the money.


  
Who is the frontrunner to win in Ontario?

The polls cannot agree on which party is best placed to win the next election in Ontario.


  
Quebec provincial politics likely to make waves in Ottawa

With a Parti Québécois majority government a real possibility, federal parties in Ottawa won’t be able to sidestep Quebec provincial politics in 2014.


  
Will polls get back on track in 2014?

It was a very bad year for polling,after a rough one in 2012.The coming year provides a chance for political polling to get back on track,but only if the opportunity is seized.


  
The dangers of great expectations

The Liberals have the most to lose in today’s four federal byelections. But should they?


  
Parliamentary Calendar
Monday, February 15, 2016
HILL LIFE & PEOPLE SLIDESHOWS
MPs party under the stars, B.C. politicos come to Ottawa Feb. 8, 2016

The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright

Party Under the Stars was held on Feb. 3 at Ottawa City Hall. Conservative MPs Erin O'Toole and Steven Blaney dancing with performer Jully Black. 

The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright

Ottawa Mayor Jim Watson, Party Under the Stars organizer Cheri Elliott, National Defence Minister Harjit Sajjan, and Chief Government Whip Andrew Leslie. 

The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright

Mr. Sajjan and Ms. Elliott.

The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright

Environics' Louis Charles Roy, Greg MacEachern, and their newest hire Chris McCluskey.

The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright

Chief Government Whip Andrew Leslie.

The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright

Ottawa Mayor Jim Watson.

The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright

Conservative MP Cheryl Gallant.

The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright

Ottawa city councillor Jody Mitic.

The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright

Conservative MP James Bezan.

The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright

Conservative MP Rob Nicholson. 

The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright

Conservative MP Peter Kent.

The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright

Jully Black with emcee of the evening Sarah Freemark.

The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright

The crowd inside the Sir John A. Macdonald Building on Feb. 3.

The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright

B.C. Liberal MPs at Wednesday's reception.

The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright

Liberal MPs Joyce Murray, Sukh Dhaliwal, and Hedy Fry with B.C. Premier Christy Clark.

The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright

Harjit Sajjan and Sukh Dhaliwal.

The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright

B.C. Liberal MP Joe Peschisolido and Premier Christy Clark.

The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright

Liberal B.C. MP Hedy Fry.

MICHAEL DE ADDER'S TAKE



MPs who won 50 per cent or more of the vote in their ridings, Election 2015 Ridings where MPs won 50 per cent or more of the vote MPs who won 50 per cent or more of the vote in their ridings, Election 2015
Election 2015 results Who won, who lost: Full Election 2015 results Election 2015 results
Seventy-one closest ridings won by five per cent or less, Election 2015 71 closest races won by five per cent or less, Election 2015 Seventy-one closest ridings won by five per cent or less, Election 2015
Where the party leaders have been so far this campaign Where the leaders are Where the party leaders have been so far this campaign
Assembly of First Nations’ list of influential ridings among aboriginal population Top 51 ridings indigenous voters can influence the vote Assembly of First Nations’ list of influential ridings among aboriginal population
Incumbent MPs not running in Election 2015 Election 2015: MPs not running Incumbent MPs not running in Election 2015
Duffy trial starts April 7: A Hill Times primer Mike Duffy Trial primer Duffy trial starts April 7: A Hill Times primer
Nominated Federal Candidates for 2015 Election, by riding Federal Election 2015 Nominated Federal Candidates for 2015 Election, by riding