Monday, May 25, 2015
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POLLING & POLLSTERS
Hard to sugar coat Conservatives’ polling data

It suggests the party may have lost 10 points in national support, or roughly a quarter of the people who voted for them in 2011. The Conservatives benefit from a division of the centre-left vote, but the good news ends there.


  
Alberta latest case of a volatile electorate

More and more voters can no longer be taken for granted. And that’s a good thing.


  
Quebec wild card in 2015 election

Quebec had a lot of surprises in store in 2011. It will only get worse in 2015.


  
Will the NDP let a Prairie opportunity go by?

Despite the Conservatives being down in support and new riding boundaries, the NDP may not make the gains it could in the Prairies.


  
How likely are Liberal gains in southwestern Ontario?

The Liberals have London and the surrounding region in their sights, but southwestern Ontario may be a tough nut to crack.


  
The good, the bad, and the ugly in 2014 polls

The polling industry had some high profile electoral successes in 2014, but its errors may prove more consequential for 2015.


  
NDP still the party to beat in Quebec

Despite poor polling and byelection results in the rest of Canada, the New Democrats remain the party of choice for Quebec’s francophones.


  
Will a new party in Quebec change the game in 2015?

Forces et Démocratie may play little role in the next election, but it has the potential to be a spoiler.


  
New Brunswick shows little can change in a year

Last week’s provincial election in New Brunswick had some parallels with the current federal situation, but also carried some warnings.


  
Summer lull unlikely to improve Tory fortunes

The Senate scandal is still a political story, and one that is likely to explode again once Mike Duffy’s trial begins. The summer was never going to be the time for the Conservatives to regain the lead or improve their position by default. The fall is unlikely to be any kinder.


  
Ontario polls show how it should be done

The polls were not exactly the miss they have been made out to be. What’s more, some polls provided good examples of how to do it right.


  
Nothing new in confusing Ontario polls: Éric Grenier

The polls may be in disagreement, but Ontario has been indecisive in the run-up to an election before.


  
Approval ratings point to advantage for NDP and Mulcair

The Liberals and Conservatives may be leading in the polls, but Mulcair has better personal numbers.


  
Polls do their job in Quebec

After a string of bad calls, the polls in Quebec were on the money.


  
Who is the frontrunner to win in Ontario?

The polls cannot agree on which party is best placed to win the next election in Ontario.


  
Quebec provincial politics likely to make waves in Ottawa

With a Parti Québécois majority government a real possibility, federal parties in Ottawa won’t be able to sidestep Quebec provincial politics in 2014.


  
Will polls get back on track in 2014?

It was a very bad year for polling,after a rough one in 2012.The coming year provides a chance for political polling to get back on track,but only if the opportunity is seized.


  
The dangers of great expectations

The Liberals have the most to lose in today’s four federal byelections. But should they?


  
Lessons learned from Nova Scotia polling

The polls in Nova Scotia got it right. What can we learn from this success?


  
Has the Liberal brand rebounded?

After a near-death experience, the Liberal brand seems to have recovered.


  
Parliamentary Calendar
Monday, May 25, 2015
HILL LIFE & PEOPLE SLIDESHOWS
Canadian talent centre stage at SOCAN Hill reception May 19, 2015

The Hill Times photograph by Cynthia Münster
The crowd dancing and singing along to Alex Nevsky's performance, in the Aboriginal Peoples Committee room.
The Hill Times photograph by Cynthia Münster
Liberal MP Stéphane Dion, SOCAN CEO Eric Baptiste, Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau, President of the SOCAN Board of Directors Stan Meissner, and SOCAN Chief Quebec Affairs Officer Geneviève Côté, pictured May 12 at the event.
The Hill Times photograph by Cynthia Münster
Conservative MP Gord Brown, chair of the House Canadian Heritage Committee.
The Hill Times photograph by Cynthia Münster
NDP MPs Rathika Sitsabaiesan and Pierre Nantel take a selfie during the concert.
The Hill Times photograph by Cynthia Münster
Canadian performing artist Sarah Slean.
The Hill Times photograph by Cynthia Münster
DFATD Director General Marcel Lebleu, Environics Communications' Louis-Charles Roy, Alex Nevsky, and ESDC's Philippe Bernier-Arcand.
The Hill Times photograph by Cynthia Münster
Back Row: Stéphane Dion, Sarah Slean, Mr. Brown, Eric Baptiste, Pierre Nantel, Stan Meissner, James Cowan. Front Row: Marc Ouellette, Geneviève Côté, Alex Nevsky, Laurence Lafond-Beaulne, and Gabriel Gratton.
The Hill Times photograph by Cynthia Münster
Gabriel Gratton, Laurence Lafond-Beaulne, and Alex Nevsky performing.
The Hill Times photograph by Cynthia Münster
Liberal MP Rodger Cuzner, SOCAN's Geneviève Côté, and Liberal MP Mark Eyking.
The Hill Times photograph by Cynthia Münster
Sarah Slean and NDP MP Tyrone Benskin.
The Hill Times photograph by Cynthia Münster
Conservative MP Terrence Young, SOCAN's Stan Meissner, and Eric Baptiste.
The Hill Times photograph by Cynthia Münster
Tom Mulcair's current, and former chiefs of staff Alain Gaul and Raoul Gébert, with SOCAN's Eric Baptiste.
The Hill Times photograph by Cynthia Münster
Sen. Cowan, Sarah Slean, and Stan Meissner.
The Hill Times photograph by Cynthia Münster
Environics Communications' Alex Bushell, with NDP MPs Carol Hughes and Djaouida Sellah.
The Hill Times photograph by Cynthia Münster
Alex Nevsky and Environics Communications' Greg MacEachern.

MICHAEL DE ADDER'S TAKE