Saturday, April 25, 2015
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POLLING & POLLSTERS
Quebec wild card in 2015 election

Quebec had a lot of surprises in store in 2011. It will only get worse in 2015.


  
Will the NDP let a Prairie opportunity go by?

Despite the Conservatives being down in support and new riding boundaries, the NDP may not make the gains it could in the Prairies.


  
How likely are Liberal gains in southwestern Ontario?

The Liberals have London and the surrounding region in their sights, but southwestern Ontario may be a tough nut to crack.


  
The good, the bad, and the ugly in 2014 polls

The polling industry had some high profile electoral successes in 2014, but its errors may prove more consequential for 2015.


  
NDP still the party to beat in Quebec

Despite poor polling and byelection results in the rest of Canada, the New Democrats remain the party of choice for Quebec’s francophones.


  
Will a new party in Quebec change the game in 2015?

Forces et Démocratie may play little role in the next election, but it has the potential to be a spoiler.


  
New Brunswick shows little can change in a year

Last week’s provincial election in New Brunswick had some parallels with the current federal situation, but also carried some warnings.


  
Summer lull unlikely to improve Tory fortunes

The Senate scandal is still a political story, and one that is likely to explode again once Mike Duffy’s trial begins. The summer was never going to be the time for the Conservatives to regain the lead or improve their position by default. The fall is unlikely to be any kinder.


  
Ontario polls show how it should be done

The polls were not exactly the miss they have been made out to be. What’s more, some polls provided good examples of how to do it right.


  
Nothing new in confusing Ontario polls: Éric Grenier

The polls may be in disagreement, but Ontario has been indecisive in the run-up to an election before.


  
Approval ratings point to advantage for NDP and Mulcair

The Liberals and Conservatives may be leading in the polls, but Mulcair has better personal numbers.


  
Polls do their job in Quebec

After a string of bad calls, the polls in Quebec were on the money.


  
Who is the frontrunner to win in Ontario?

The polls cannot agree on which party is best placed to win the next election in Ontario.


  
Quebec provincial politics likely to make waves in Ottawa

With a Parti Québécois majority government a real possibility, federal parties in Ottawa won’t be able to sidestep Quebec provincial politics in 2014.


  
Will polls get back on track in 2014?

It was a very bad year for polling,after a rough one in 2012.The coming year provides a chance for political polling to get back on track,but only if the opportunity is seized.


  
The dangers of great expectations

The Liberals have the most to lose in today’s four federal byelections. But should they?


  
Lessons learned from Nova Scotia polling

The polls in Nova Scotia got it right. What can we learn from this success?


  
Has the Liberal brand rebounded?

After a near-death experience, the Liberal brand seems to have recovered.


  
Green Party could win second seat in Victoria in 2015

Though the 2015 election might be won or lost in Ontario and Quebec, B.C. could be the most interesting province to watch.


  
Polls are king in U.S., while in Canada they're derided: Grenier

'In the U.S., everyone seems to be celebrating the rise of the data wonk, yet in Canada, polling failures [are] pushing [the] opposite way. Polling aggregators have stunk in Canada [because] of bad polls from which to aggregate. Puts wind in [the] sails of chitchat pundits,' says Kevin Milligan.


  

Parliamentary Calendar
Saturday, April 25, 2015
HILL LIFE & PEOPLE SLIDESHOWS
Vickers honoured at Douglas C. Frith dinner April 2, 2015

The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
The Château Laurier Ballroom was packed on Tuesday, March 31 for the Canadian Association of Former Parliamentarians dinner.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
The evening began with RCMP Cpl. Craig Kennedy's rendition of O Canada.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
Ambassador to Ireland Kevin Vickers was recognized as an honorary member of CAFP for his heroism as the Sergeant at Arms during the Oct. 22 shooting.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
Peter O'Brian, Liberal MP Carolyn Bennett and Steve Paikin.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
Rob Nicholson and former Liberal MP Sue Barnes.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
Conservative MP Dean Allison.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
Kevin Vickers and Conservative MP Ray Boughen.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
International Union of Operating Engineers' Steven Schumann and Canadian Labour's Nathan Rotman.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
House Deputy Speaker Joe Comartin.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
Mary Dawson, Senator David Smith, and Sharon Sholzberg-Gray.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
Senator Art Eggleton and Conservative MP Earl Dreeshen.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
Independent MP Brent Rathgeber in conversation with TVO's Steve Paikin.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
Andrew Cardozo, Pearson Centre president.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
Conservative MP Jay Aspin and Kevin Vickers.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
Lobbyist Leo Duguay.
The Hill Times photograph by Jake Wright
TVO host and author Steve Paikin gave an impassioned speech on what he's learned about the allure of public life.

MICHAEL DE ADDER'S TAKE