It suggests the party may have lost 10 points in national support, or roughly a quarter of the people who voted for them in 2011. The Conservatives benefit from a division of the centre-left vote, but the good news ends there.
More and more voters can no longer be taken for granted. And that’s a good thing.
Quebec had a lot of surprises in store in 2011. It will only get worse in 2015.
Despite the Conservatives being down in support and new riding boundaries, the NDP may not make the gains it could in the Prairies.
The Liberals have London and the surrounding region in their sights, but southwestern Ontario may be a tough nut to crack.
The polling industry had some high profile electoral successes in 2014, but its errors may prove more consequential for 2015.
Despite poor polling and byelection results in the rest of Canada, the New Democrats remain the party of choice for Quebec’s francophones.
Forces et Démocratie may play little role in the next election, but it has the potential to be a spoiler.
Last week’s provincial election in New Brunswick had some parallels with the current federal situation, but also carried some warnings.
The Senate scandal is still a political story, and one that is likely to explode again once Mike Duffy’s trial begins. The summer was never going to be the time for the Conservatives to regain the lead or improve their position by default. The fall is unlikely to be any kinder.
The polls were not exactly the miss they have been made out to be. What’s more, some polls provided good examples of how to do it right.
The polls may be in disagreement, but Ontario has been indecisive in the run-up to an election before.
The Liberals and Conservatives may be leading in the polls, but Mulcair has better personal numbers.
After a string of bad calls, the polls in Quebec were on the money.
The polls cannot agree on which party is best placed to win the next election in Ontario.
With a Parti Québécois majority government a real possibility, federal parties in Ottawa won’t be able to sidestep Quebec provincial politics in 2014.
It was a very bad year for polling,after a rough one in 2012.The coming year provides a chance for political polling to get back on track,but only if the opportunity is seized.
The Liberals have the most to lose in today’s four federal byelections. But should they?
The polls in Nova Scotia got it right. What can we learn from this success?
After a near-death experience, the Liberal brand seems to have recovered.