Last week’s provincial election in New Brunswick had some parallels with the current federal situation, but also carried some warnings.
The Senate scandal is still a political story, and one that is likely to explode again once Mike Duffy’s trial begins. The summer was never going to be the time for the Conservatives to regain the lead or improve their position by default. The fall is unlikely to be any kinder.
The polls were not exactly the miss they have been made out to be. What’s more, some polls provided good examples of how to do it right.
The polls may be in disagreement, but Ontario has been indecisive in the run-up to an election before.
The Liberals and Conservatives may be leading in the polls, but Mulcair has better personal numbers.
After a string of bad calls, the polls in Quebec were on the money.
The polls cannot agree on which party is best placed to win the next election in Ontario.
With a Parti Québécois majority government a real possibility, federal parties in Ottawa won’t be able to sidestep Quebec provincial politics in 2014.
It was a very bad year for polling,after a rough one in 2012.The coming year provides a chance for political polling to get back on track,but only if the opportunity is seized.
The Liberals have the most to lose in today’s four federal byelections. But should they?
The polls in Nova Scotia got it right. What can we learn from this success?
After a near-death experience, the Liberal brand seems to have recovered.
Though the 2015 election might be won or lost in Ontario and Quebec, B.C. could be the most interesting province to watch.
'In the U.S., everyone seems to be celebrating the rise of the data wonk, yet in Canada, polling failures [are] pushing [the] opposite way. Polling aggregators have stunk in Canada [because] of bad polls from which to aggregate. Puts wind in [the] sails of chitchat pundits,' says Kevin Milligan.
Apparently, not everyone believes that mid-mandate polls mean nothing.
After the miss in B.C., the polls need to get better. Both for the sake of themselves and voters.
With greater attention comes greater risk for the Liberals, but also an opportunity not to be missed.
The gamble is not in banking on Trudeau to resurrect the Liberal Party—it is in discounting his appeal.
Quebecers split at both the provincial and federal levels.