TORONTO—If you look at the results from the 2006 Montreal Liberal leadership convention, you might assume that the next Liberal leader, after Bob Rae, will be Gerard Kennedy. That's because since Montreal, the Liberal leaders have picked from the top and have gone down the list of leadership participants ever since. After the winning candidate Stéphane Dion, the Liberals subsequently catapulted their first runner-up, Michael Ignatieff, next to the top.

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